Time series analysis of egg production in case of Ethio-chicken in the Gubre Sub -city

Abstract

This study is attempted to investigate the trends of actual yield of egg production at ethio chicken in gubre subcity poultry farm. A total of 58 weeks of egg production was included in this study. The study used both descriptive and inferential statistics to analyze the data that were collected from the poultry farm of the sector. The results of descriptive statistics revealed that the mean, minimum and maximum egg production in the study area were 220749, 17 and 296592 respectively. The study employed inferential statistics for the purpose of estimating the trend, stationary and diagnostic test for testing the presence of autocorrelation. The data become stationary at first order differencing. The finding showed that the trend of egg yield of the hens’ species is decreasing. And, ARIMA (1, 1, 1) is an appropriate adequate model for the data. The study leads to forecasting the egg yield of 07/31/2021 to 11/07/2021 weeks.