LAND USE PATTERN, CLIMATE CHANGE AND ITS IMPILICATION ON FOOD SECURITY IN GURAGHE ZONE

Abstract

It is widely recognized that climate variability and frequent droughts resulting from El-Nin phenomenon are among the major risk factors affecting agricultural production that might contribute to hunger and food insecurity in East Africa in general and Ethiopia in particular The objectives of the present study were to examine the implication of land use pattern climate change and its implication on food security in Guraghe Zone, SNNPRS, Ethiopia. This study is based on Zonale level data of the study area based on major seasonal crops Maize, Wheat, Barely, Sorghum, Teff and Potato which comprise of food crops for the timespan of 2000 to 2010 (CSA). Using secondary data both descriptive statistics (mean, standard devotion, and t-test) and liner regression model were used to analyze the data. Crop productivity in quintals per hactar is chosen to be the Dependent variable whereas cropping area, yield, average annual maximum and minimum temperatures, rural house holders, totalforest area, average annual rainfall are the Explanatory variables. Rainfall positively contributed to the production of maize crop and was significant. Maximum humidity contributed positively, it showed a significant influence on maize yield. The results of study also indicate a positive influence of rainfall on overall productivity. A 1% increase in therainfall leads to a 0.889% increase in the yield of crops. However, the adjusted R2 value showed 47% variability in the production of maize crop. According to this study, theobserved mean yield of the six crops in ascending order is as follows: sorghum, barley ,maize,teff, wheat, and potato. In the case of average production, maize ranked first, potato ranked second, barely ranked third and wheat, teff and sorghum fourth , fifth and six place, respectively. The linear regression that adoption of soil conservation, small-scale irrigation and employing different agronomic practices are important factors influencing household crop productivity. Moreover, land holding and forest are positively and significantly affected house hold‘ scropp productivity. The results further showed that population pressure was important factors affecting crop productivity in the inverse direction. This study further highlighted the significance of cropping area in attaining crop productivity under changing climate. The findings call for action based on growing improved crop seed to increase food crop productivity