THE NEXUS BETWEEN COFFEE EXPORTAND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN ETHIOPIA: EMPERICAL ANALYSIS

Abstract

The country has taken different measures to diversify and increase the contribution of coffee export to economic growth such as; export trade duty incentive scheme, export credit guarantees scheme and foreign exchange retention scheme to those wholly engaged in supplying their products to foreign markets. This paper investigated the relationship between coffee export and economic growth of Ethiopia, for the period 1974- 2017G.C.Despite the incentives taken by the country, the export sector has depended on a few agricultural products mainly coffee, oil seeds and pulses which are characterized by fluctuations in quantity, price and have low competitiveness on the world market. The objective of the study was to assess the trend and relationship of coffee exports on economic growth of Ethiopia over the last forty-three years by looking at the existence of long run relationship between coffee export and economic growth. The speed of adjustment in the long run and the existence of causality between the coffee export and economic growth. The analysis was done using co-integration model, Error correction model and Granger causality model. The findings of the study showed that Coffee export has a positive and significant relationship with economic growth. On the other hand, the causality relationship found that there is uni-directional relationship between coffee export and economic growth that means coffee does granger cause of RGDP. Finally, CUMSUM test confirms the long-run relationships between the variables and also shows the stability of the coefficients. Based on the findings, it is recommended that policies aimed at increasing the productivity and quality of this coffee production should be implemented. Also additional value should be added to them before exporting that means the roasted coffee and other things can be added. When this is done, it will lead to a higher rate of economic growth in Ethiopia.