Impact of technology Adoption legume producing on Farmers’ Income: A Case study of Guraghe Zone Wolkite Univesity College of Business and Economics Department of Economics A Thesis submitted as partial fulfillment of the requirements for the award of MSc degree in Economics (Major in Development Economics) By: Sahlu Badishe Major advisor: Mekonnen Bersisa(PhD) Co-advisor Tesfaye Etensa (Ass Prof.) June, 2019 Wolkite, Ethiopia w kul is dl i w kul is dl ii w kul is dl iii w kul is dl iv ACKNOWLEDGEMENT Above all, thanks to my God. I would like to express my truthful gratitude thanks to my major advisor Dr. Mekonnen Bersisa (PhD) for his valuable comments, suggestion, and support through deep follow up. He deserves special appreciation for the input he added on my work from the initial title adjustment as well as proposal writing to final thesis. I also thanks to my Co advisor Tesfaye Etensa (Ass Prof.) for his valuable comments, suggestion, and support. My deepest and sincere gratitude to my family always had been with me throughout my studies and my works. My beloved wife, Seble Zewdu who always push me and continuous helping with her smile that my works during my studied. My love I remember you anywhere because of no apprehensive action at any time and any work and I thank you so much for all your effort and support me! Also My Son Yeabsira Sahlu and My Daugther Danat Sahlu whole families appreciate and continuous helping idea giving time. In Gurage zone agricultural development department experts, Abeshge ,Gumer and Sodo woreda Agriculture and Natural Resource Office experts and 9 kebele agriculture development agents support in data collection times any relevant data feed .I thanks also to my collogues of My Organization: Gurage Zone Investment office the whole experts participate in my works facilitation. My Brother Birhanu Badishe And Damench Badishe by sharing the transport cost other relevant fee. Finally but most significantly, I would like to express my deepest thanks to Ato lemma Shallo (MA ) Economics department of Wolkite University lecturere for his interest to support me during data analysis using PSM and thank you to all who supported me throughout my studies. w kul is dl v Table of Contents ACKNOWLEDGEMENT .................................................................................................................................... iv Table of List .................................................................................................................................................. viii List of Figure ................................................................................................................................................... ix ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS .................................................................................................................. x Abstract .......................................................................................................................................................... xi CHAPTER ONE ................................................................................................................................................. 1 INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................................................................... 1 1.1. Background of the study ...................................................................................................................... 1 1.2. Statement of the Problem ................................................................................................................... 3 1.3. Research Questions ............................................................................................................................. 5 1.4. Objectives of the Study ........................................................................................................................ 5 1.5. Significance of the study ...................................................................................................................... 6 1.6. Scope of the study ............................................................................................................................... 7 1.7 Limitations of the study ........................................................................................................................ 7 1.8 Organization of the study ..................................................................................................................... 7 CHAPTER TWO ................................................................................................................................................ 9 LITERATURE REVIEW ....................................................................................................................................... 9 2.1. Definition of Basic Concepts ................................................................................................................ 9 2.1.1. Definition of leguminous crops ......................................................................................................... 9 2.1.2. Impact of Legume ......................................................................................................................... 9 2.1.3. Importance of legumes ...............................................................................................................10 2.1.4. Definition of Adoption ................................................................................................................10 2.1.5. Agricultural Technology Adoption ..............................................................................................11 2. 2. Theoretical Reviews ..........................................................................................................................13 2.3. Experimental method and Non-Experimental methods ........................................................................15 2.4. Propensity Score Matching ....................................................................................................................17 w kul is dl vi 2.6. Empirical Review literature ....................................................................................................................18 2.7. Conceptual Framework ..........................................................................................................................23 CHAPTER THREE ............................................................................................................................................26 RESEARCH METHODOLOGY ..........................................................................................................................26 3.1. Description of the Study Area ................................................................................................................26 3.2 Sampling Techniques and Procedures ....................................................................................................27 3.3 Types and method of data collection .................................................................................................29 3.4 Pre-Testing (Validity and reliability) .................................................................................................29 3.5 Method of Data Analysis .....................................................................................................................29 3.6.1.1. Nearest Neighbor Matching .........................................................................................................35 3.6.1.3.Kernel Matching ............................................................................................................................36 3.7. Description of Variables and their expected Signs ............................................................................40 3.7.1. Dependent variables ...................................................................................................................40 3.7.2. Explanatory Variables .................................................................................................................41 3.7 Reliability and Validity .........................................................................................................................45 CHAPTER FOUR .............................................................................................................................................46 4.1. Descriptive Statistic Results ...............................................................................................................46 4.1.1. Demographic characteristic of farm households ........................................................................46 4.1.2 Education status of sample farm households ..............................................................................48 4.1.3 Farming system and characteristics .............................................................................................48 4.1.3.2 Cropping system ...............................................................................................................................50 4.1.4 Adoption of technologies in legume farming ..................................................................................53 4.1.4.1 Input supplying parties .....................................................................................................................53 4.1.4.2 Trait preference of farmers ..............................................................................................................54 4.1.5 Adoption status of sample households for main farm inputs .........................................................55 Sources: Own computation from survey data (2019) ...............................................................................56 4.1.6 Farmers’ typological arrangement ...................................................................................................56 4.2. Econometric Analysis .........................................................................................................................59 w kul is dl vii 4.2.1. Determinants adoption of legume technologies ........................................................................59 4.3. Impact of Adoption of Legume legumes technology .........................................................................63 4.3.1. Estimation of propensity score ...................................................................................................64 4.3.2. Matching adopter and non-adopters ........................................................................................66 4.3.3. Common support condition ........................................................................................................66 4.3.4. Choice of matching algorithm and matching ..............................................................................69 4.3.5. Testing the balance of propensity score and covariates ............................................................71 4.3.6 ATT estimation of impact of technology on HH income ..............................................................73 4.4. Average treatment effects (ATE) with test ........................................................................................74 4.5 .Matching estimators of the ATT based on the propensity score outcome ...........................................75 4.5.1. Nearest neighbor matching (attnd.ado) .....................................................................................75 4.5.2. Radius matching (attr.ado) .........................................................................................................76 4.5.3. Kernel matching (attk.ado) .........................................................................................................77 4.5.4. Stratification matching (atts.ado) ...............................................................................................77 4.6. Sensitivity Analysis .............................................................................................................................78 4.7. Consistency Testing ............................................................................................................................79 4.7.1. Cronbach’s Alpha ........................................................................................................................79 5. Conclusions and Recommendations ........................................................................................................80 5.1. Conclusion ..........................................................................................................................................80 5.2. Recommendations .............................................................................................................................81 5.3. Areas of Further Study .......................................................................................................................83 REFERENCE ....................................................................................................................................................84 Appendix.I Table of results ...........................................................................................................................90 Appendix. II Questionnaire .........................................................................................................................102 w kul is dl viii Table of List--------------------------------------------------------------------------------viii Table.3.1 Sample distribution .......................................................................................................................28 Table.3.2. Definition of dependent variables ................................................................................................40 Table.3.3. Independent variables ..................................................................................................................44 Table.4.1. Demographic characteristics of sampled farmer ..........................................................................47 Table 4.2. Education levels of sampled household .......................................................................................48 Table.4.3. Land use pattern of household .....................................................................................................49 Table .4.4 agronomic activities of legume production ..................................................................................51 Table.4.5. Plot size production of major crop ...............................................................................................52 Table.4.6. Households’ preference of institution for input delivery .............................................................54 Table.4.7. Variety's trait preference ..............................................................................................................55 Table.4.8. Agricultural input adoption status ................................................................................................56 Table 4.9. Adoption status of sample households for main farm inputs .......................................................58 Table.4.10. Determinants adoption level of legumes technology .................................................................60 Table. 4.11. Distribution of estimated propensity score ...............................................................................66 Table.4.12 Performance of different matching estimator .............................................................................70 Table .4.13.Pscore and covariates balance ....................................................................................................72 Table .4.14. Chi-square test for the joint significance of variables ...............................................................72 Table 4.15.Treatment effect on HH income .................................................................................................73 Table .4.16. Average treatments effects ........................................................................................................74 Table.4.17. ATT estimation with nearest neighbor matching analytical standard errors .............................75 Table.4.18. ATT estimation with nearest neighbor matching bootstrapped standard error ..........................75 Table.4.19. ATT estimation with in radius matching analytical standard error ............................................76 Table.4.20 ATT estimation with in radius matching bootstrapped standard error .......................................76 Table.4.21. ATT estimation with in kernel bootstrapped standard errors.....................................................77 Table.4.22. ATT estimation with the stratification analytical standard errors ..............................................78 Table.4.23. ATT estimation with the stratification bootstrapped standard errors .........................................78 w kul is dl ix List of Figure Figure 2.1 Diagram on conceptual framework .............................................................................................25 Figure 4.1. psgraph propensity score matching distribution adoption of legumes technology .....................65 Figure .4.2 propensity score before matching legumes technologies adoption ............................................66 Figure-4.3. Propensity score graph propensity score matching distribution adoption of legumes technology after match. ...................................................................................................................................................67 Figure .4.4. Propensity score after matching legume technologies adoption ................................................68 w kul is dl x ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS CSA Central Statistics Agency EATA Ethiopian Agricultural Transformation Agency EEPA Ethiopia Export Promotion Agency GDP Gross Domestic Product GPS Generalized Propensity Score GZANRDD Guraghe Zone Agricultural & Natural Resource Development Department GZFEDD Guraghe Zone Finance and Economics Development Department Ha Hectare ICARDA International Center for Agricultural Research in the Dry Areas ICRISAT International Crops Research Institute for the Semi-Arid Tropics IFPRI International Food Preparation Research Institution MOARD Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development NBE National Bank of Ethiopia NERICA New Rice for Africa OPHI Oxford Poverty and Human Development Initiative PSM Propensity Score Matching SNNPRS Southern Nation Nationality Peoples Regional State USAID United States Agency for International Development USD United States Dollar WB World Bank WDR World Development Report w kul is dl xi Abstract The importance of agricultural technology in enhancing production and productivity can be realized when yield increasing technologies are widely been used and diffused. Standing from this logical ground, this paper aimed to evaluate the impact of legumes technologies adoption on farm income on Guraghe Zone in Ethiopia. This study used cross sectional data that acquired from total of 204 households which were randomly and proportionately sample from 9 major legumes producer kebeles in three district of Guraghe zone stratifies sampling techniques. Logit model was used to estimate to identify underlying factor that determine adoption of legume technologies (improve legume seed, fertilizers, chemicals, inoculants and farming techniques). PSM model was used to estimate to evaluate the impact of legume technologies adoption of farmers’ income. Descriptive statistics and econometric models were used to analyze the data. The results from logit model indicate that educational level of household, the household headed, member of cooperative association, to advices to agricultural extension services, size of cultivated land for crop, credit access, off-farm participation and tropical livestock unit positively significant adopt of legume technologies adoption. If female of household headed and plot size for legumes crop cultivated purpose negatively significant influence of legume technologies adoption. Impact assessment of the marginal effect showed that farmers who had adopted legume technologies could enhance their annual total income level by 46.6% and the crop income particularly from grain legume has been increased by 88%. What about the impact based on the findings, the study suggests that strengthening the promotion of full package technology adoption will have crucial role towards improving the livelihood of households in the study area. In doing so, managing the possible influencing factors that affect adoption of legume technology should be a prerequisite. Key words: Legumes Technology, technology adoption, Logit , PSM Model, Guraghe, Ethiopia w kul is dl 1 CHAPTER ONE INTRODUCTION 1.1. Background of the study Globally, agricultural development is expected to have the potential of helping in trimming down poverty for 75% of the world's poor, who lives in rural areas and work mainly in farming. It can also contribute in raising incomes, improving food security and benefitting the environment. Agriculture accounts for one-third of GDP and three-quarters of employment in Sub-Saharan Africa (WB, 2013). Ethiopian economy is fundamentally agrarian where the performance of the agriculture sector dictates the entire economic performance of the country. Despite the reportedly growing importance of the manufacturing and the industry sectors, agriculture continues to account for nearly 36.7% of the gross-domestic product (GDP), more than 72% of labor employment and 80.84% of foreign export earnings (NBE , 2015/16). Principal crops of Ethiopian agriculture include coffee, legumes, oilseeds, cereals, potatoes, sugarcane, and vegetables. The major staple foods in Ethiopia are grains (e.g. teff, wheat, barley, corn, sorghum, and millet), legumes, oils, ensete, fruits and vegetables. Grains are the most important field crops and the chief element in the diet of most Ethiopians. Exports are almost entirely from agricultural commodities, and coffee is the largest foreign exchange earner, the next sesame and legumes are estimated to be the third most important export crop in Ethiopia just next to sesame (MOARD, 2008). Pulses/Legumes are the second most important element in the national diet and a principal protein source. They are boiled, roasted, or included in a stew-like dish known as wot, which is sometimes a main dish and sometimes a supplementary food. Pulses, grown widely at all altitudes from sea level to about 3,000 meters, are more prevalent in the Northern and Central highlands. Pulses were a particularly important export item before the revolution. Major pulse w kul is dl 2 crops grown in the country are chickpea, haricot beans, lentils, faba bean and peas. Legumes in Ethiopia cover 12.42% of the total cultivated land and provide 11.89% of the total crop production of the country, which is 2.67 million tons (CSA, 2015). According to Legese (2004), feeding the rapidly growing population of Ethiopia by means of extensive farming is becoming unachievable due to limited opportunities for area expansion. Rather, the option that looks more likely is increasing yield through intensification, which involves adoption of different improved agricultural practices (Million and Belay, 2004). Despite the significant contribution of adoption of agricultural innovations for increasing production and income, adoption rate of modern agricultural technologies in the country is very low (Di Zeng et al., 2014 and Berihun et al., 2014). In order to raise the agricultural production and productivity, raise income, reduce poverty and to enhance the food security and children nutrition, on a sustainable basis in the developing countries like Ethiopia, large-scale adoption and diffusion of new technologies is very essential (Tsegaye and Bekele, 2012; Degye et al.,2013 and Di Zeng et al.,2014). Despite the crucial role of legumes for poverty reduction and improving food security in Ethiopia, lack of technological change and market imperfections have often locked small producers into subsistence production and contributed to stagnation of the sector (Shiferaw and Teklewold, 2007). Even if several research and development efforts have attempted to facilitate productivity growth for small farmers, some of these efforts did not stimulate large-scale technology uptake and diffusion. This is mainly because of the limited understanding of farm level constraints, farmer preferences and the challenges related to better coordination of input supply and delivery of new technologies and market linkages for small producers. Therefore, this study aimed at filling the gap on identification of determinants behind lower adoption of legume technologies and evaluating the impacts of adoption on the farmer′s incomes of household. The general motivations of this paper is that eight main legumes widely grown in Ethiopia are: faba bean, chickpea, field pea, grass pea, and lentil for the cooler highlands and on haricot bean, groundnut and soybean, for the warmer mid and low altitudes of the country. Overall, faba bean is the largest leguminous crop in Ethiopia followed by haricot bean and chickpea. Field pea and grass pea serve as an important food security crop in many areas and still account for more than w kul is dl 3 300,000 tons each. In total, Ethiopian legume production accounts for almost 3 million tons. At present, virtually all legume production in Ethiopia is undertaken by smallholder farmers with limited external inputs on plot sizes of up to 1.5 ha (CSA, 2013). Legumes grown in Ethiopia 2016/17 (2009 E.C.) covered 12.92% (1,624,773.23 hectares) of the grain crop area and 10.13% (about 29,442,665.89 quintals) of the grain production was drawn from the same crops. Faba beans, haricot beans (white), haricot beans (red), chick peas, lentils, grass pea, soya bean and groundnut were planted to 3.40% (about 427,696.80 hectares), 0.63% (about 78,910.13 hectares), 1.68% (about 211,292.30 hectares), 1.79% (about 225,607.53 hectares), 0.9%(about 113,684.63 hectares), 1.2%(about 151,268.58 hectares), 0.29%(about 36,635.79 hectares) and 0.59%(about 74,861.23 hectares) of the grain crop area According to (IFPRI, 2010) report pulses are grown throughout the country. However, the lion share production is concentrated in the Amhara and Oromiya regions, which together account for 92 percent of chickpea production, 85 percent of faba bean production, 79 percent of haricot bean production, and 79 percent of field pea production. The SNNPRG stands third in overall production of pulses by producing 10% of the faba bean, 18% of the filed pea, 3% of chickpea and 15% of haricot bean. Guraghe Zone in 2017/2018 productive season annual achievement report the main crop on average area of land "belg" & "meher" 175,505.5 hectares cultivated, of which legumes 25,428.75 hectares sow under legumes crop about 6% of the total sow different variety of certified legumes seed used. 1.2. Statement of the Problem Based on the Multidimensional Poverty Index, Ethiopia ranks the second poorest country in the world just ahead of Niger (OPHI, 2015). Ethiopian economy is highly agriculture-dependent and it is characterized as subsistence-oriented. Use of improved seed holds the key to sustainable food crop production across the globe because seed is the basic agricultural inputs that brought improvement of agricultural productivity (Pelmer, 2005). Likewise, chemical fertilizer is regarded as a crucial component of farm inputs by small-scale farmers. In ideal farming condition, farmers should use fertilizer and improved seed together in order to achieve the optimal return of crop production (Nigussie et al., 2012). w kul is dl 4 The development in cropping system helps for the improvement of standard of living of smallholder farmers who took the major part of the nations of Ethiopia. Despite the fact that farming technologies such as improved seed and chemical fertilizer is considered as contributing determinants for development of the worldwide agriculture, Ethiopia has chronicle poverty and food insecurity problem for a sustained period of time. One of the reasons for the prevalence of food insecurity is low rate of adoption of improved farm inputs. In fact different agricultural technologies have been released to improve productivity of smallholder farmers in the country (Hailu, 2008). But the national adoption rate could not exceeded 11% in major farming inputs such as improved seed and chemical fertilizers. As a result, low crop production and household income remained to be endemic problems in the country (Paul and Shahidur, 2012). The study area was conducted in 73.2% of residents are severe poor in the region (OPHI, 2017) of Ethiopia, SNNPRG regional state specifically in Gurage Zone. Even if so much has been done in developing improved technologies of legumes and in disseminating them in different parts of Ethiopia, understanding the drivers of adoption and the structure of the diffusion process is an essential component of any research aimed at tackling the challenges faced by resource poor households. There are in fact many studies on the adoption and impact of agricultural technologies (Asfaw et al., 2011; Tsegaye and Bekele, 2012; Degye et al., 2013 and Di Zeng et al., 2014). However, most of them focused only on identifying determinants of adoption and in analyzing the impact on wellbeing by considering adoption as a binary treatment (Asfaw et al., 2011; Tsegaye and Bekele, 2012). But there are prospects to predict the factors affecting adoption level via constructing semi-experimental scenarios. This study is designed to impact of technologies adoption of legumes producing on farmers’ income. Leguminous crops are the second crops both in production and consumption in Ethiopian farming system next to cereals. It has also the big market share in the export market and generating foreign currency for the national economy. Leguminous are the ultimate source of protein in diet complements of these substance-farming communities but are rarely the major focus of attention. Predominantly legume farming is carried out traditionally without the relief of agricultural technology. In recent years, the adoption of agricultural technologies such as improved seed, fertilizer, and farming equipments being utilized by the farming community but still the rate of adoption is in its lower level. More importantly, Gurage zone where this study w kul is dl 5 conducted, dominantly known in cereal production and most of the adoption studies associated with cereal crops while legumes are disregarded. Therefore, this study initiated to choose the study area to fill the mentioned knowledge gap. Furthermore, as technology has a dynamic nature, its effect varies along with time and hence continuous updating adoption effect is required then technologies adoption means as a full package form. In this regard, it is fundamental to researchers to measure the outcome of agricultural technology along with time and as a full package form. Variations in level of adoption of technology can be a result of generalization of farmers by decision makers. Farmers' initiative towards responding a technology varied due to not only on agro ecological determinants but also socioeconomic characteristics and technologies adoption is including appropriate improve seed varieties, appropriate chemical fertilizers, row planting, inoculants and integrated pest management use as a package form but not separately use. Drawing key characterization elements among farmers will have an indispensable importance towards customizing technology adoption. Thus, it is better to develop a typology of legume farmers based on their current status in technology adoption. 1.3. Research Questions The study addresses the following major research questions: 1. What are the factors that determine adoption of legume technologies? 2. What is the impact of adoption of haricot bean, chickpea, faba bean and field pea varieties on households’ income? 1.4. Objectives of the Study The main objective of this study was to evaluate the impact of legumes technology adoption on farmers’ income in Guraghe zone of Ethiopia. The specific objectives of the study are to:  Identify the determinants of adoption of haricot bean, chickpea, faba bean and field pea technologies. w kul is dl 6  Evaluate the impact of adoption of haricot bean, chickpea, faba bean and field pea varieties on households’ income.  To identify the typology of farmers based on haricot bean, chickpea, faba bean and field pea producing their current technologies adoption status. 1.5. Significance of the study Development of agricultural technology by itself is not enough to bring growth of farmers’ and improvement in livelihood. There should be an enabling policy environment which creates the condition where farmers have access to improved technologies and also to increase their production and productivity (Sitotaw, 2006). Dealing on adoption of agricultural technology from farmers’ livelihood perspective has a significance to draw the clear picture for policy makers involved in development and dissemination of new technologies. The result of this study could help stakeholders (agriculture offices, development partners, research institutions) to identify the pivotal issue to address the technologies in attaining the ultimate objectives. In addition, identifying determinants which determine success or failure of technology adoption has importance to guide future research. This study expected to point out the main determinants that influence the adoption level. Technologies to be recommended for adoption should insure the livelihood of farmers. And hence, impact studies enables researcher to identify their end towards the most pressing issues. With this respect, the study shows to what extent adoption of technology influence their livelihood. Once knowing the impact of technology, designing appropriate policy and extension service that is directed towards fostering the adoption level by identifying the potential factors is important. Besides, it is expected that this study would serve as introductory to undertake detailed and comprehensive studies in related scenario. Therefore, the study of adoption impact and determinants impeding the adoption of legume technology would provide useful insight to policy makers, strategic planners, and administrators in the formulation of appropriate agricultural policy. This study also serves as a springboard for further detail research in legume grain farming. w kul is dl 7 1.6. Scope of the study This study was in three district of Guraghe zone, which found in the SNNPR State. Farmers’ preference for of legume technology adoption packages is influenced by many factors. During this analysis, factors influencing adoption of legumes technologies with relevancy chemical fertilizer and pesticide by legumes producer of in Gurage Zone were the subject of the study. The study tried to assess that factors adoption of the technology, the intensity of use of the technology within the study area and to look at whether or not technology adoption led to higher financial gain to legume crops growers in Gurage Zone. And here specific issues connected with land use, socio-economic condition of home farms, and therefore the practice of legumes production with reference to the adoption of chemicals like fertilizer and pesticide; and opportunities of using those technologies in enhancing production have assessed. However, since this study is limited to technology adoption, it cannot provide detailed information about other related problems related to rural agriculture of the study area. Lack of adequate historical data is also another problem in this study. The available information also varies in many ways from year to year. In addition to this local problem, lack of related literature about legumes technologies adoption within Gurage Zone agriculture in general and within legumes producers in particular is one of the significant limitations for this study. Therefore, the study has undertaken to fulfill its objectives inside the mentioned constraints. 1.7 Limitations of the study The study was limited to three districts in Gurage Zone. It was designed in such a way that the sample was representative of the food legumes production potential of the area and yet it can hardly have sufficient external validity given the size of Gurage Zone both agro ecologies heterogeneity of the farming communities within. The study was prepared based on cross- sectional data and hence does not look into the temporal dynamics of adoption of the technologies and the impact thereof. In addition, the impact assessments were limited to improved varieties despite the fact that the remaining technologies are usually recommended as a package. 1.8 Organization of the study The rest of this thesis is organized in five sections. Section two, dealt with review of literature that includes definitions of concepts of legumes crops, adoption, agricultural technologies w kul is dl 8 adoption, stage of adoption, and theoretical and empirical reviews. Section three has presented methodology with a brief description of the study area, sampling method, and methods of data analysis. The results and discussion more detail in section four. Section five has presented conclusions and recommendation. w kul is dl 9 CHAPTER TWO LITERATURE REVIEW 2.1. Definition of Basic Concepts 2.1.1. Definition of leguminous crops Leguminous crops are sources of protein for humans and animals, vegetable oil for human consumption, for human health, and resources for industries and bio-fuels. They are important forage crops, groundcovers, and timber resources. Legume plants are notable for their ability to fix atmospheric nitrogen, due to a mutualistic symbiotic relationship with bacteria (rhizobia) found in root nodules of these plants. Legumes' nitrogen fixation ability resupplies depleted soil with nitrogen. Usage example: "The use of a leguminous crop, such as alfalfa, can provide a significant amount of nitrogen to subsequent crops in rotation and can replace the application of synthetic nitrogen fertilizer. This means reduced fertilizer cost and reduced fossil fuel consumption to produce the fertilizer". Grain legumes, also called pulses, are plants belonging to the family leguminosae (alternatively Fabaceae) which are grown primarily for their edible seeds. These seeds are harvested mature and marketed dry to be used as food or feed or processed into various products. Being legumes, these plants have the advantage of fixing atmospheric nitrogen for their own needs and for soil enrichment, thereby reducing the cost of fertilizer inputs in crop farming. Crops that are harvested green for forage and for vegetables are excluded, as well as those grown for grazing or green manure. Also excluded are the leguminous crops with seeds which are used exclusively for sowing, such as alfalfa and clover (FAO, 2010). 2.1.2. Impact of Legume There are several factors that can help explain why the uptake and impact of legume technology is less well documented than is the case for some other major staples. Some are related to the relative importance of legumes and hence the absolute contribution of changes in legume technology and the importance that farmers may accord to opportunities for innovation. A second set of factors is related to the mechanisms for promoting legume technology and particularly the limitations of national seed systems for diffusing new varieties. A third set of factors relates to the way that statistics are collected about legume technology use (Robert Tripp, 2011). w kul is dl 10 2.1.3. Importance of legumes Legumes are known to perform multiple functions. Grain legumes provide food and feed, and facilitate soil nutrient management and mitigating climate change. Herbaceous and tree legumes can restore soil fertility and prevent land degradation while improving crop and livestock productivity on a more sustainable basis. Thus cultivation of such dual-purpose legumes, which enhance agricultural productivity while conserving the natural resource base, may be instrumental for achieving income and food security, and for reversing land degradation. Ethiopian farmers’ produce different legume crops mainly for food and feed, to fetch cash, and more importantly to restore the fertility of the crop land. Farmers' participation on pulses cultivation in the country has been increased nearly by double from 4.5 to 8.5 million farmers for the last nearly 20 years. Legumes contribute to smallholder income, as a higher-value crop than cereals, and to diet, as a cost- effective source of protein that accounts for approximately 15 percent of protein intake. Moreover, pulses offer natural soil maintenance benefits through nitrogen-fixing, which improves yields of cereals through crop rotation, and can also result in savings for smallholder farmers from less fertilizer use. It also contributes significantly to Ethiopia’s balance of payments. 2.1.4. Definition of Adoption The adoption of an innovation within a social system takes place through its adoption by individuals or groups. According to Federet al. (1985), adoption may be defined as the integration of an innovation into farmers‟ normal farming activities over an extended period of time. Dasgupta (1989) noted that adoption, however, is not a permanent behavior. This implies that an individual may decide to discontinue the use of an innovation for a variety of personal, institutional, and social reasons one of which might be the availability of another practice that is better in satisfying farmers' needs. Feder et al. (1985) classified adoption as an individual (farm level) adoption and aggregate adoption. Adoption at the individual farmers' level is defined as the degree of use of new technology in long run equilibrium when the farmer has full information about the new technology and its potential. In the context of aggregate adoption behavior they defined diffusion process as the spread of new technology within a region. This implies that aggregate adoption is w kul is dl 11 measured by the aggregate level of specific new technology with a given geographical area or within the given population. Rogers (1983) defines the adoption process as the mental process through which individual passes from first hearing about an innovation or technology to final adoption. This indicates that adoption is not a sudden event but a process. Farmers do not accept innovations immediately; they need time to think over things before reaching a decision. The rate of adoption is defined as the percentage of farmers who have adopted a given technology. The intensity of adoption is defined as the level of adoption of a given technology. The number of hectares planted with improved seed (also tested as the percentage of each farm planted to improved seed) or the amount of input applied per hectare will be referred to as the intensity of adoption of the respective technologies (Nkonya et al. 1997). 2.1.5. Agricultural Technology Adoption The concept of technology adoption could be better conceptualized through understanding the difference between technology adoption and diffusion, which are highly interrelated but distinct concepts. Adoption is related to private utility mechanisms (Federet al., 1985; Feder and Umali, 1993) and can be defined as “the choice to acquire and use a new invention or innovation” (Hall and Kahn, 2002), whereas “diffusion is the process by which an innovation is communicated through certain channels over time among the members of a social system” (Rogers, 1983).Technology adoption is measured at one point in time while technology diffusion is the spread of a new technology across population over time (Thirtle and Ruttan, 1987). Rogers (1962) summarized the above definition of technology diffusion using the following four core elements: (1) the technology that represents the new idea, practice, or object being defused, (2) communication channels which represent the way information about the new technology flows from change agents suppliers (extension, technology suppliers) to final users or farmer, (3) the time period over which a social system adopts a technology and (4) the social system. Overall, the technology diffusion process essentially encompasses the adoption process of several individuals or farmers over time. Further, another study by Rogers (1995), defined the rate of adoption (speed of adoption) of a given technology. It is the relative speed with which farmers adopt technology; in this definition consideration is given to the element of a given w kul is dl 12 technology to the farmers. According to Feder et al. (1985), adoption can be categorized into individual or aggregate adoption. They defined individual adoption as the degree of use of a new technology in a long-run equilibrium when the farmer has full information about the new technology and its potential, whereas aggregate adoption is defined as the process of spread of a technology within a region. Further, their studies distinguished technologies that are divisible and non-divisible. Divisible technology in terms of resource allocation requires the decision process to involve area allocations as well as levels of use of the rate of application (for instance, improved seed, chemical fertilizer, and herbicide and pesticide). Whereas, technologies that are not divisible in term of resource allocation require how much resource to be allocated to the new and old technologies (for instance: mechanization, irrigation and better farm management practices such as uses of recommended agronomic practices). The application of the concept of adoption in empirical studies, therefore, requires making distinction between technologies which are divisible and non-divisible. This is because often times the nature of the technology dictates the terms on which adoption is conceptualized and analyzed. Therefore, adoption of improved agricultural technologies such as improved variety and/or chemical fertilizer can therefore be categorized as divisible technology, defined as farmers who planted at least one improved maize variety and/or use chemical fertilizer for maize, and non-adopters are those who did not grow any of the improved maize variety and/or used chemical fertilizer in maize farming. Adoption of recommended agronomic practices such as the use of timely planting, cropping system and seed spacing are categorized as a non-divisible technology, measured in terms of the status of use by smallholder farmers for planting. Rogers (1962) developed a technology adoption model, generalized the use of it in his book entitled as “Diffusion of Innovations”. He used the model to describe how technology spread in the social system. The technology adoption model describes the adoption or acceptance of a new product or technology. The process of adoption over time is typically illustrated as a classical normal distribution or bell-curve and use the mean and standard deviation to divide the normal adopter distribution categories. The model indicates that the first group of people to use a new product or technology is called innovators, followed by early adopters. Next come the early and late majority, and the last group to eventually adopt a product are called laggards. While explaining each of the categories the study by Rogers (1962) defined as: w kul is dl 13 Innovators: These are the first individuals to adopt a given technology and hence they are willing to take risks, youngest in age, have the highest social class, have great financial liquidity, are very social and have closest contact with scientific sources and interacting with other innovators. Early adopters: These are those groups of individuals who are typically younger in age, have a higher social status, have more financial liquidity, advanced education, and are more socially forward than late adopters, which means more discrete in adoption choices than innovators. Early majority: Individuals in this category adopt technology after a varying degree of time. This time of adoption is significantly longer than the innovators and early adopters. Early majority tend to be slower in the adoption process, have above average social status, contact with early adopters, and seldom hold positions of opinion leadership in a system. Late majority: Individuals in this category will adopt technology after the average member of the society. These individuals approach technology with a high degree of skepticism, and after the majority of society has adopted the technology. Late majority is typically skeptical about technology, have below average social status, very little financial lucidity, in contact with others in late majority and the early majority, very little opinion leadership. Laggards: Individuals in this category are the last to adopt a technology. Unlike some of the previous categories, individuals in this category show little to no opinion leadership. These individuals typically have an aversion to change-agents and tend to be advanced in age. Laggards typically tend to be focused on “traditions”, likely to have lower social status, lowest financial fluidity, older of all other adopters, in contact with only family and close friends. 2. 2. Theoretical Reviews Impact assessment is a process of systematic and objective identification of the short and long term effects of intervention on economic, social, institutional and environments. Such effects may be anticipated or unanticipated and positive or negative, at the level of individuals, households, or the organization caused by ongoing or completed development activities such as a project or program (Rover and Dixon, 2007, Omoto, 2003). Impact assessment evaluation is the w kul is dl 14 extent to which a project has caused desired or undesired changes in the intended users. It is concerned with the net impact of intervention on individuals, households, or institutions attributable only and exclusively to that intervention (Baker, 2000). Impact on income is a reward that the owners of fixed factors of production receive as a result of allowing their land, capital, and labor to take part in production. The very focus of impact analysis was the contrast of adopters to the counter factual non adopters. Therefore, measuring the marginal effect of the adoptions of the new technology over the traditional practice is essential. According to FAO (2000), impact assessment is done for several practical reasons: (1) accountability – to evaluate how well we have done in the past, to report to stakeholders on the return to their investment, and to strengthen political support for continued investment; (2) improving project design and implementation - to learn lessons from past that can be applied in improving efficiency of research projects; and (3) planning and prioritizing - to assess likely future impacts of institutional actions and investment of resources, with results being used in resource allocation and prioritizing future projects and activities, and designing policies. Technological change is very important in cases where there is limited scope for increasing agricultural production through increased use of input of factors like land (Solow, 1957). There are serious complexities associated with understanding the impact pathway through which agricultural technology adoption might affect household welfare. This is due to the fact that crop production can affect household welfare directly or indirectly. Crop production affects poverty directly by raising the welfare of poor farmers who adopt technological innovation though increased production, lowering cost of production, and improving natural resource management (Janvry et al., 2001). Impact studies essentially have the same process as technology development itself. It typically does this by comparing outcomes between beneficiaries and control groups (AIEI, 2010). Since the data for this study was obtained from survey, non experimental impact evaluation design is preferred using propensity score matching method of analysis. According to Rosenbaum and Rubin (1983) and, Heckman et al., (1998), Propensity Score Matching is a non experimental method for estimating the average effect on social programs. The method compares w kul is dl 15 average outcomes of participants and non participants conditioning on the propensity score values. In order to make causal inferences, random selection of subjects and random allocation of treatments to subjects was required. In observational studies, random limitations of an observational study are that there may be random selection of subjects but not random allocation of treatments to subjects. When there is lack of randomization, causal inferences can’t be made because it is not possible to determine whether the difference in outcome between treated and control (untreated) subjects is due to treatment difference between subjects on other characteristics. Programs might appear potentially promising before implementation yet fail to generate expected impacts or benefits. The obvious need for impact evaluation is to help policy makers decide whether programs are generating intended effects; to promote accountability in the allocation of resources across public programs; and to fill gaps in understanding what works, what does not, and how measured changes in well-being are attributable to a particular project or policy intervention (Shahidur et al., 2010). Estimating the impact of the participation – in this case adoption of legume technologies - requires separating its effect from participating factors, which may be correlated with the outcomes. This task of “netting out” the effect of the program from other factors is facilitating if control groups are introduced. “Control group” consists of a comparable group of individuals or households who did not involve in the program, but have similar characteristics as those participating in the program, called the “treatment group”. In theory, evaluators could follow three main methods in establishing control and treatment groups: randomization/pure experimental design; non-experimental design and quasi-experimental design. In practice, in the social sciences, the choice of a particular approach depends, among other things, on data availability, cost and ethics to experiment. In what follows, brief descriptions of the main impact evaluation methods mentioned above are given. 2.3. Experimental method and Non-Experimental methods Experimental method is randomized method, where the treatment and control samples are randomly drawn from the same population. In other words, in a randomized experiment, individuals are randomly placed into two groups, namely, those that involve in the program or w kul is dl 16 those that do not involve in the program. This allows the researcher to determine the participation impact by comparing means of outcome variable for the two groups. In the contrary, non experimental approach is used in cases where program placement is intentionally located. Non experimental methods are frequently used in practice either because program administrators are not too keen to randomly exclude certain parts of the population from an intervention or because a randomized approach is out of context for a rapid-action project with no times to conduct an experiment. Generally, randomized evaluations seek to identify a program’s effect by identifying a group of subjects sharing similar observed characteristics (say, across incomes and earning opportunities) and assigning the treatment randomly to a subset of this group. The non-treated subjects then act as a comparison group to mimic counterfactual outcomes. This method avoids the problem of selection bias from unobserved characteristics. However, the quality of impact analysis depends ultimately on how it is designed and implemented. Often the problems of compliance, spillovers, and unobserved sample bias hamper clean identification of program effects from randomization. In such cases, researchers then turn to non-experimental methods. The basic problem with a non experimental design is that for the most part individuals are not randomly assigned to programs, and as a result, selection bias occurs in assessing the program impact (Shahidur et al., 2010). The essential idea of the before and after estimator of an impact evaluation approach is to compare the outcome of interest variable for a group of individuals after participating in a program with outcome of the same variable for the same group or a broadly equivalent group before participating in the program and to view the difference between the two outcomes as the estimate of average treatment effect on the treated. Cross-section estimators use non-participants to derive the counterfactual for participants in which case it becomes quasi-experimental method. A quasi-experimental method is the only alternative when neither a baseline survey nor randomizations are feasible options (Jalan and Ravallion, 2003). The main benefit of quasi experimental designs are that they can draw on existing data sources and are thus often quicker and cheaper to implement, and they can be performed after a project has been implemented, given sufficient existing data. The principal disadvantages of quasi-experimental techniques are that the reliability of the results is often reduced as the methodology is less robust statistically; w kul is dl 17 the methods can be statistically complex and data demanding; and there is a problem of selection bias. 2.4. Propensity Score Matching Propensity score matching (PSM) is one of the quasi-experimental methods, which constructs a statistical comparison group that is based on a model of the probability of participating in the treatment, using observed characteristics. Participants are then matched on the basis of this probability, or propensity score, to nonparticipants. The average treatment effect of the program is then calculated as the mean difference in outcomes across these two groups. The validity of PSM depends on two conditions: (a) conditional independence (namely, that unobserved factors do not affect participation) and (b) sizable common support or overlap in propensity scores across the participant and nonparticipant samples. Different approaches are used to match participants and nonparticipants on the basis of the propensity score. They include nearest neighbor (NN) matching, caliper and radius matching, stratification and interval matching, kernel matching and local linear matching (LLM). Regression-based methods on the sample of participants and nonparticipants, using the propensity score as weights, can lead to more efficient estimates. PSM is not without its potentially problematic assumptions and implementation challenges. First, PSM requires large amounts of data both on the universe of variables that could potentially confound the relationship between outcome and intervention, and on large numbers of observations to maximize efficiency (Bernard et al., 2010). Second, related to the previous point one can never be entirely sure that it has actually included all relevant covariates in the first stage of the matching model and effectively satisfied the conditional independence assumption (CIA). Furthermore, PSM is non-parametric: that does not make any functional form assumptions regarding the average differences in the outcome. Although the first stage involves specification choices - e.g., functional form like logit and probit, empirical analyses tend to find impact estimates that are reasonably robust to different functional forms. Moreover, if unobservable characteristics also affect the outcomes, PSM approach is unable to address this bias (Ravallion, 2005). w kul is dl 18 Irrespective of its shortcomings, PSM model was employed to evaluate the impact of adoption (as a binary treatment variable) on the income of household because it is very appealing to evaluators with time constraints and working without the baseline data that it can be used with a single cross-section of data. 2.5. Generalized propensity score matching: Currently, propensity score matching methods are extended to be applied in settings with continuous treatments, where the focus is on assessing the heterogeneity of treatment effects arising from different treatment levels, that is, different amount of intensity of adoption of improved legume varieties. Generalized Propensity Score (GPS) or Dose Response Function is a continuous treatment estimator developed by Hirano and Imbens (2004).The GPS method relies on the assumption that selection into different levels of adoption of legume technologies is random, conditional on observable characteristics (unconfoundedness) which could be important determinants of intensity of adoption. In this study, generalized propensity score matching was employed to assess the impact of intensity of adoption legume varieties (adoption as continues treatment variable) on the adopter households by discarding non-adopter from the model. After this study to shows that the difference between adoption of legumes technologies adopters and none adopters based on annual income & income from legumes crops. According to this the number of legumes technologies adopter increase then after agricultural production & productivity increases. 2.6. Empirical Review literature As is the case in many developing countries with an agrarian economy, agricultural technology adoption has got a number of processes. It has both spatial and temporal dimension. It is argued that technology adoption is not a one of static decision rather it involves a dynamic process in which information gathering, learning and experience play pivotal roles particularly in the early stage of adoption and diffusion (Assefa and Gezaghegn, 2010). Technology can be adopted when it is found to be beneficial while dropped over time if loss is entertained due to increasing cost of inputs, falling of yields or shift to other more profitable technology (Dinar and Yaron, 1992). There are various reasons that brought agricultural w kul is dl 19 technologies to be adopted or brought for failed to do adoption. Quite much of the studies have been generated on determinants of technology adoption both domestically and internationally. Farmers move from learning to adoption to continuous or discontinuous use over time. The characteristics of both the user and the technology are important in explaining adoption behavior and the pathway for adoption. The lag between learning and adoption, and the possibility of discontinuation imply that a longer period will be required for the majority of farmers to use the technology than if adoption was a one off decision leading to continuous use. This picture has been clearly demonstrated by the adoption process of the technology in the four regions of Ethiopia considered in this study. The study conducted in Ethiopia and western Kenya using probit analytical model shows that gender, agro-climate zone, manure use, hired labor and extension service has a significant effect towards adoption of improved seed and fertilizer (Salasya et al., 1998, Cropenstedt et al., 2003). On the other hand a study conducted in the coastal low lands of Kenya shows that non availability and high cost of seed, unfavorable climate conditions, perception, and insufficient soil fertility has a negative and significant effect on adoption of technology. The study conducted in Morena district of India, on wheat production, found that knowledge of farmers which may be acquired through education, training, and availability of information and the credit facility has a significance positive contribution to the adoption of improved technology (Kansana et al., 1996). Nkonya et al.,(1997), analysis factors affecting adoption of improved maize seed and fertilizer in Northern Tanzania indicated that farm size, education and frequency of visits by extension agents significantly and positively influenced maize seed adoption where as the factors such as farmers’ age, family labor and yield variability have not significantly influenced improved maize seed adoption. Batz et al., (1999) a study conducted in Meru district of Kenya to find out factors affecting rate and speed of adoption of technology, less risky technology is preferable and easily adopted. Misfin (2005), on his study carried out to determine factors influencing adoption of triticale in Farta wereda of Amhara region using Logistic regression model, maximum likelihood estimation procedure, traced that distance to market center, distance to all weather road, access to leased-in land, perception about superiority of yield of triticale, livestock holding, off/non farm income w kul is dl 20 and input price were found to influence farmers adoption decision of triticale (wheat crop). According to Yanggen et al., (1998), in Africa fertilizer application is determined by human capital (basic education, extension and health); financial capital (income, credit and assets); yield response (bio-physical technology and extension), basic services (infrastructure and quality control) and input output price (structure conduct and performance of subsector, competition and equity). Foyed et al., (1999), in a study of adoption and associated impact of technology; conducted in the western hill of Nepal draw that a balanced investment in research and extension is needed to ensure adoption at the household level. The study found that the typical reason for failing of adoption is either lack of know how or supply of the technological inputs. So, in conditions where official sources are not available, farmer to farmer interaction is important. Farmer to farmer information flow can be built on by extending by the involvement of farmers in technology development and by developing methods that enables to enhance their current roles in technology dissemination. Yu et al., (2011), in a study conducted on cereal technology adoption in Ethiopia, to examine the extent of adoption of fertilizer seed technology package and factors affecting the adoption of same using nationally representative secondary data, found that variables affecting the adoption of the new technology, like access to extension service, the level of adoption at the district level, and the experience of farmers using fertilizer in other crops, have a significant effect on the probability of accessing fertilizer and improved seed by farmers. Specialization, together with wealth and risk aversion, also plays a major role in explaining crop area under fertilizer, which should be related to better access to technology-related knowledge. According to Feder et al., (1982) the conventional explanations for the sequential adoption process are: lack of credit, limited access to information, aversion to risk, inadequate farm size, and inadequate incentive associated with farm tenure arrangements, insufficient human capital, absence of equipment to relieve labor shortage, and inappropriate transportation infrastructure. Hailu (2008) used the probit and Tobit models to examine factors influencing adoption and intensity of teff technologies in Ethiopia. The study revealed that farmers education level, frequency of DA officer visits, credit availability and knowledge of farmers have positive w kul is dl 21 influence towards technology adoption and adoption intensity whereas variables like age of farmers, number of family labor, frequency of risk were inhibiting adoption of technology. Saha et al., (1994) divide the adoption process into three stages: information collection, decision on whether or not to adopt, and decision on how much to adopt. Filho (1997) applied both probit and logit models and duration analysis to explain the maize growers’ behavior in the adoption of new technologies. He found that both economic (such as yield level, income, and cost of adoption) and non-economic (such as behavior of adopters' factors influences a farmer’s decision to adopt the new technologies of maize. It shows that decision to adopt the sustainable technologies for maize is positively related to his/her contact with government/non-government organizations, the farmer’s understanding of the negative effect of chemicals, the available labor force in the family and the soil fertility. Filho (1997) further concludes that the adoption is negatively related to farm size. According to Foster and Rosenzweig (1996), agricultural technology adoption decision was seriously been determined by imperfect information, risk, uncertainty of institutional constraints, human capital, input availability and infrastructural problems. The study by Degye (2013) in Eastern and Central highlands of Ethiopia identified the determinants of adoption of chemical fertilizer, high yielding crop varieties and improved livestock breeds and their interdependence by using multivariate probit model. The results verify that adoptions of these three agricultural technologies were significantly interdependent of each other. Uses of chemical fertilizer were positively affected by use of irrigation water, gross agricultural income, distance to research institution and farming system. Whereas the adoption of high yielding variety were positively determined by land allocated to cash crops, gross agricultural income, distance to research institution and farming system; where adoption of improved livestock breeds were positively affected by amount of cultivated land and distance to research institution while it negatively affected by farming experience of household and distance to nearest road. Similar studies were also done on factors affecting the adoption and intensity of use of improved forages in South Wollo, north east highlands of Ethiopia by Hassen (2014), using the double hurdle model. The finding of this study suggests that the likelihood of adoption were enhanced w kul is dl 22 by age of household head, ownership of livestock, and access to credit and extension service. Where farm size, off/non-farm income, distance to all weather roads and markets, distance to input and credit offices were found to adversely affecting the likelihood of adoption of improved forages. The intensity of adoption of improved forages was enhanced by sex of household head [being male], labor availability, and farm size where it is adversely affected by household size, off/non-farm income, distance to all weather roads and markets and distance from development agent office. Similarly, the study by Abreham and Tewodros (2014) identified level of education, social participation, access to credit, labor availability, farm size, achievement motivation and market distance as the major socio economic factors that affect the intensity of adoption of coffee in Yerga Cheffe District in Gedeo Zone of SNNP Regional State of Ethiopia by using Tobit model. Using Logit model, Debelo (2015) assessed factors influencing adoption of Quncho tef in Wayu Tuqa district of Ethiopia. Results revealed that family labor availability, participation of farmers in agricultural trainings, education level of the household head, livestock holding (TLU), farmer’s ability of meeting family food consumption and frequency of extension contact were enhancing the decision to adopt Quncho teff. In this study, age of household head, owning oxen and distance from household residence to market center was found to influence adoption of Quncho tef negatively. Similarly, Berihun et al. (2014) examined the determinants of adoption of chemical fertilizer and high yielding varieties in Southern Tigray Ethiopia by using Probit model. Sex of household head, land ownership, use irrigation, access to credit, contact with extension worker and participation in off farm activities were found to be positively affecting the adoption of chemical fertilizer, whereas plot distance, distance to the nearest market and livestock holding affected the adoption negatively. The adoption of high yielding varieties was positively affected by land ownership, access to credit, use of irrigation and livestock holding where as it is negatively affected by age of household head and distance to the nearest market. As discussed above, the empirical evidence on the adoption and its determinant in Ethiopia generally indicate that the adoption rate of agricultural technologies was relatively low with considerable personal and spatial heterogeneities. They suggest that the rate and intensity of w kul is dl 23 adoption of agricultural technologies is notably influenced by socioeconomic factors such as livestock holding, farm size, active family member and so on and other organizational factors such as access to credit, input and output market, agricultural extension services etc. Even though there are many adoption studies throughout Ethiopia, there is a clear bias towards major cereal crops or key cash crops within the geographic scope of the crops’ ideal agro-ecologies. Unlike previous studies, this study focuses on estimating the determinants of adoption of legume technologies on farmer’s income in Guraghe Zone of Ethiopia where legumes are not the dominant crops. In addition, most of the studies above were in locations with entirely different socioeconomic and biophysical features compared to Guraghe Zone. In general, the above reviewed study shows that most of the researchers focused on improved seed and chemical fertilizers, improved seed varieties based on agro climates it depends on these variables positively and negatively significantly influence. These researchers the study of technology adoption more focus improve seed varieties & chemical fertilizers or improve seed varieties and other technologies were separately used. Technologies mean dynamics to change over times. The best of my special attention technology adoption as a full package means, improve appropriate seed varieties, appropriate chemical fertilizer application, row planting based on spacing , integrated pest management (IPM), proper agronomy management to be done from site selection up to storing on time used on each household level, both agricultural practices incorporate as packaging form but not separately use . Those practices always to be done appropriate time because one of miss the technologies component fails the new technologies. 2.7. Conceptual Framework The conceptual framework of adoption and impact of legumes technologies on the welfare of farm households starts with identification of the driving factors for adopting improved agricultural technologies. These factors include external dynamics (environmental factor, for example, like unfavorable weather condition, land degradation, erratic rainfall, and low fertility status of land), demographic characteristics of the household (e.g. age, education level etc.) and other social and institutional factors (availability of new information, availability of new technology, availability of credit etc.). w kul is dl 24 Then after, adoption of legume technologies is expected to have considerable economic advantage in terms of increase in yield, increase in marketable surplus of farm households and ultimately in reducing food security and poverty. w kul is dl 25 Diagram on conceptual framework Figure 2.1 Diagram on conceptual framework Source own computation survey data 2019 legumes technology adoption Household characteristics (eg) Sex of hh head Education of hh head Economic factors(eg) Farm size Livestock holding Off-farm activity Out put (eg) Annual income Income from legumes crops Institution factor (eg) Member of farmers coop asso Access to credit Access to extension serviecs & market w kul is dl 26 CHAPTER THREE RESEARCH METHODOLOGY 3.1. Description of the Study Area Gurage Zone is one of the 15 administrative Zone including Hawassa city and 4 special woreda in Southern Nations, Nationalities, and Peoples' Region (SNNPR) state in south- Western Ethiopia situated at 8ْ10N 38ْ15E. It has 13 districts and two towns. Guraghe is bordered on the Southeast by Hadiya and Yem special woreda, on the West, North and East by the Oromia Region, and on the South east by Silt'e CSA (2009). The altitude in Guraghe zone ranges from 1000 to 3600 m.a.s.l. The Zone has four agro- ecological zones essentially based on altitude, namely extreme highlands (above 3000 m.a.s.l), highland (2300 to 3000m.a.s.l), midland (1800 to 2300 m.a.s.l), and lowland (below 1800 m.a.s.l) covering 4.1%, 27.5%, 65.3%, and 3.1% of the zone, respectively. The natures of topography in the zone exhibit, broadly speaking, three categories: The mountainous highland represented by the Guraghe mountain chain, dividing the zone east to west, having an elevation of 3600Mts. The plateau flat lands, the area covered by "Amora and Ambusa meda". The low stretching area, the western fringe of the rift valley and the Wabe Gibe valley having an elevation of 1000Mts.The area receives an average annual rainfall of 700-1600mm and minimum and maximum temperature of 7.5oC and 32oC, respectively GZFEDD, annually socio economic report (2017). Total area of Guraghe zone is about 5893 square kilometers accounting for 5.6 % of SNNPRG. Only about 73.64 % of the zone is arable land under crop production, whereas 11.85% is grazing land, 11.74% covered with forest, and the remaining 3.77% of the zone is under other land use forms (GZANRDD, 2017). The districts in the Guraghe zone are known for their bimodal rainfall pattern and hence highly suitable for agriculture. They have two distinct seasons; i.e, Belg (from March to June) and Meher (from July to January). According to GZFEDD report (2017) the zone has estimated total populations of about 1,724,324 out of which about 836,896 are male and 887,428 are female. Out of total population of the zone, more than 93.76% is dependent on agriculture and 87.76% lives in rural areas. Major w kul is dl 27 crops grown in the zone are wheat, maize, teff, barley, faba bean (Vicia faba), field pea (Pisum sativum), chickpea, haricot bean, sorghum and Enset (Ensetumventricosum), Peper, coffee and are also grown in the zone the location of map shows (Appendix I.13) . 3.2 Sampling Techniques and Procedures In this study, three stage sampling technique was employed. First, major legume producing districts in Gurage zone based on legumes production potential and suitable agro ecologies for legumes growers were identified with the help of as key informants to use in Gurage Zone Agricultural and Natural Resource Development Departments through many times experienced. At this stage, three major legume producing districts were selected purposively. The districts were Abeshge, Gumer and Sodo based on relative importance of legumes in the crop production system. Then, three kebeles were randomly selected from each district. Accordingly, Mida Tedele, Bido Tedele, and Abiko Kebles were selected from Abeshge district. Abesuja, Esen, Dirbo and Sunen Kebeles were selected from Gumer district. Similarly, Sewaty geda, Wudget and Wacho kebeles were randomly selected from Sodo district. Finally, out of total 9 kebles a sample of 102 household headed legumes technologies adopter and 102 non adopter random selected based on each kebele agriculture development agent through past time recorded data 204 farm households in total 78, 88 and 38 sample households from Abeshge, Gumer and Sodo, respectively- were selected proportionately across kebeles based on their total households. Ordinarily multi-stage sampling is applied in big inquires extending to a considerable large geographical area, say, the entire Gurage Zone. There are two advantages of this sampling design viz., (a) It is easier to administer than most single stage designs mainly because of the fact that sampling frame under multi-stage sampling is developed in partial units. (b) A large number of units can be sampled for a given cost under multistage sampling because of sequential clustering, whereas this is not possible in most of the simple designs. This sample size represent in the target populations, Research methodology methods and techniques C.R.KOTHARI (1990). Table3.1 shows the distribution of the sample households across the three Kebeles in each of the districts. w kul is dl 28 Table.3.1 Sample distribution District Kebele Number of household Adopter Non adopter Number of sample household Total (%) Sodo 19 19 38 18.63 Sewaty geda 311 5 6 11 5.392 Wudget 366 6 6 12 5.882 Wacho 451 8 7 15 7.353 Abeshge 39 39 78 38.24 Mida tedele 1160 20 20 40 19.61 Bido tedele 810 14 14 28 13.73 Abiko 300 5 5 10 4.9 Gumer 44 44 88 43.13 Abesuja 862 14 15 29 14.21 Esen 1200 21 20 41 20.1 Dirbo & sunen 534 9 9 18 8.82 102 102 204 100 w kul is dl 29 3.3 Types and method of data collection Both qualitative and quantitative types of data were collected from primary and secondary sources. The study was started with a series of short visits to the study sites for rapport development with the key actors in the legumes development continuum. Then a reconnaissance survey was conducted with a brief checklist to identify and document the key socioeconomic and biophysical features of the study area and major challenges and opportunities of improved legume production and marketing. The visits and the preliminary surveys were used, among others, to develop the instrument for the formal survey of the study. The primary data were obtained by the use of semi-structured questionnaires by interviews with the farm households. The adoption and impact survey was carried out from first week of December to January 30 of 2018. The data were collected by enumerators (Agricultural staff experts and development agents under supervision of the researcher. In order to facilitate data collection, the enumerators were trained regarding the objectives of the study, content of the questionnaire, and data collection procedure. Data were collected on several issues including households’ demographic characteristics, asset endowments, importance of legumes, access and adoption of legume technologies, household income and its source, access to market, access to credit and membership in different rural institutions. 3.4 Pre-Testing (Validity and reliability) To ensure validity and reliability of the research instrument, the researcher will ensure that the Questions that are asked are in conformity with the research objectives of the study and a pilot test of the research instrument will be conducted and a calculation using office Microsoft excel will be computed for question reliability and validity assessment 3.5 Method of Data Analysis The data collected was analyzed using both descriptive statistics and econometric model. Descriptive statistics includes mean, standard deviation (SD), frequency, percentage, graph and w kul is dl 30 tabular representation, which has been mostly used to examine the socio economic and farming characteristics of households. 3.6 Econometric model The legumes technology adoption being used, a farmer’s was taken as an adopter if he or she sows certified improved seed use, chemical fertilizer application, IPM and row planting; either independently or both with their indigenous seeds and manure. The dependent variable, technology adoption, has the value of 1 for adopters and 0 for non-adopters. In this regard an econometric model employed while examining probability of farm households’ agricultural technology adoption decision was the logit model. Often, logit model is imperative when an individual is to choose one from two alternative choices, in this case, either to adopt or not to adopt. Hence, an individual i makes a decision to adopt legumes technologies if the utility associated with that adoption choice (V1i) is higher than the utility associated with decision not to adopt (V0i). Hence, in this model there is a latent or unobservable variable that takes all the values in (-∞, +∞). According to Alexander Spermann (2009) these two different alternatives and respective utilities can be quantified as: Yi* = V1i - V0i and the econometric specification of the model is given in its latent as: We start by deriving the odds ratio in a way that makes explicit the relationship between the estimated logit parameters �and the error term �i: - Suppose that a continuous latent variable yi * can be modeled as a linear function of K explanatory variables (covariates), xki , for k= 1,…,k for individuals i= 1…N. The equation for yi * can be written as yi * =�0+�1x1i + �2x2 +……+ �kixi + �i 1 If we allow the explanatory variables, including the constant term, to be represented by the vector xi ′, then equation 1 can be represented in matrix notation as �i * = xi� + �i 2 However, the researcher observes only the explanatory variables and a binary (0, 1) variable yi, which indicates whether yi * exceeds the threshold of zero w kul is dl 31 �� = � 1 ��, �� ∗ > 0 0 ��ℎ������ 3 To make statements about the probability that y� = 1 (or equivalently, �� ∗ >0 we need to express the probability in terms of on error term with a known distribution. Substituting �� ′ � + �� for �� ∗ allow us to write the probability that �� > 0 in terms of the probability that the error term takes on a range of values Pr (�� ∗ > � �� ) = ��(��� + �� > � �� ) = ��(�� > − �� ′ � �� ) 4 If the error term has term has mean zero and is symmetric (which is true for the standard logstic and standard normal distributions) then ��(�� = � �� ) = ��(�� ∗ > � �� ) = ��(�� < �� ′ � �� ) 5 Equation 5 holds for any arbitrary scaling of � and � (eg; � � and � � ). Thus, because the distribution of � is unknown, the��(�� = � �� ) cannot be evaluated without an additional step (Greene and Henser, 2010). To address that problem, the typical solution is to divide both ε and β by the standard deviation of ε: ε/σ and β/σ. Those transformations makes ��(�� = � �� ) a cumulative distribution function (CDF) of a standard logistic (logit) variable, which is easy to calculate for logistic. For the logit model, the standard deviation of � � = � √� the cumulative distribution function for logit model is ��(�� = � �������,�� ) = ��( �� � < �� � � ) = � ����� (��� ′ � � ) 6 This derivation explicitly shows the important role of � in making any statements about probabilities. w kul is dl 32 Many researchers prefer to estimate logit rather than probit models because of the odds ratio interpretation of the logit coefficients. The odds for individual i are expressed as the ratio of the probability ��to 1− �� where �� = ��( �� = 1|��������, ��). ���� = �� ���� = exp (�� ′ � � ) 7 The odds ratio is the ratio of the odds in equation 7 for two different values of an explanatory variable. This is easiest to derive for a binary variable. Let ������� ���ℎ�������� ��������1� the indicator for adoption status and �������� be the corresponding coefficient the odds if individual �was � ������� (������� ���ℎ�������� ��������1� = 1) and odds if individual � was � ��� ������� (������� ���ℎ�������� �������� 1� = 0) are: ���� ��� ������� = exp ( ����������� ��������⋯����� � ) 8 ���� ��� ��� ������� = exp ( ���������⋯������ � ) 9 Therefore, the odds ratio is the ratio of the odds, which simplifies to the exponentiated Coefficient. ���� ����� = ���� ��� ������� ���� ��� ��� ������� = exp ( �������� � ) 10 X′ is vectors of exogenous variables that explain adoption of legumes technologies adopter (e.g. age of household head, sex of the household head, education, membership to an agricultural association, access to credit, etc). Therefore, on the basis of dependent variables indicated: legumes technologies adoption, logit model was applied independently for each binary dependent variable; Given below � = � + �1�1 + �2�2 + �3�3 + �4�4 + �5�5 + �6�6 + �7�7 + �8�8+�9�9 + �10�10 + �11�11 + �i ……………. (1) Where Y, is the dependent variable that is measures the level of adoption legumes technologies. X1- Access to credit w kul is dl 33 X2- Extension Agents’ Contact X3- Technology access (access to improved seed/DAP fertilizer) X4-Market access of product X5-Tropical Livestock Unit X6- Education level X7- Membership to an Association X8 -Gender of household head X9 - Land Size for cultivation purpose of household headed X10- Plot size for legumes crop for cultivation purpose of household headed X11 Off-Farm Participation �-The constant term (intercept) βi- regression parameter for the it explanatory variables which indicates the slope of the predictor variable ui= the error term of the model. 3.6.1. Propensity Score Matching Method (PSM) for impact analysis Impacts are discreet (usually binary) variables. Treatments are heterogeneous in the population (Heckamn et al., 1997. Robin 1997), developed a framework that each household has two potential outcomes; an outcome when adopting technology (y1) and not adopting technology (y0). If we let the adoption status d, d=1 for adoption of technology and d=0, for not adoption, then it is possible to write the observed outcome y of the household performance as a function of the two potential outcomes as � = ��1 + (1 − �)y0 ………………………………..(1) The causal effect of the adoption on its observed outcome y is the difference between the two outcomes (y1-y0). But because of the realization, the potential outcomes are mutually exclusive that is only one of the two outcomes has been observed at a time (Nguezet et.al, 2011). It is also impossible to measure the individual effects of adoption in any household. However, it can be possible to estimate the mean effect of adoption on a population household. Such mean parameter is called average treatment effect (ATE) (Imben and Wooldridge, 2009). ATE= � � ∑ ���(�(��)�� �(��)(���(��) � ��� ………………………………… (2) w kul is dl 34 Where n is the sample size, n1=∑��, is the number of treated variable i.e. the number of seed fertilizer technology adopting farmers and p(xi) is a constant estimate of propensity score evaluated at x. It is possible to employee logit specification to estimate the propensity score. Propensity score matching pursues a targeted evaluation of whether adopting a modern seed - fertilizer technology causes farmers to improve their performance. There will be problem of avert and hidden biases and deal with the problem of noncompliance or indigenous treatment variable. In order to remove such biases Robin (1974) introduces ignorablity (conditional) assumption which postulates, the existence of a set of covariate x, which controlled for renders the treatment outcomes (y1 and y0). The estimation using the conditional independent assumption) or they are based on a two stage estimation procedure, conditional probability of treatment called propensity score. From this we can develop two interrelated stages: Estimating the propensity score- The first step in PSM method is to estimate the propensity scores by using logit models. Caliendo and Kopeinig (2008) noted that the logit model which has more density mass in the bounds could be used to estimate propensity scores, P(x) using a composite characteristics of the sample households and matching will then be performed using propensity scores, p-score, of each observation. Matching algorism will be selected based on the data to be collected after undertaking matching quality test. Overlapping condition or common support condition will be identified, estimating the average treatment effects of both outcomes (ATE1 and ATE0) after estimation of the propensity scores, seeking an appropriate matching estimator is the major task. There are various matching estimators, which include the nearest neighbor matching, caliper and radius matching, stratification and interval matching, kernel and local linear matching (Caliendo and Kopeinig, 2008).The treatment effects will be estimated based on matching estimators selected on the common support region (owusu and Awudu, 2009).The average treatment effects can be estimated using the inverse propensity weighing estimates as stated in IPSW (Nguezet,, 2011) using matching techniques of Kernel Matching (KM), Nearest Neighbor Matching (NNM) and Radius Caliper Matching (RCM). w kul is dl 35 3.6.1.1. Nearest Neighbor Matching Caliendo and Kopeinig (2008) said that NN matching is the most straightforward and frequently used matching estimator in PSM. The individual from the control group is chosen as a matching partner for a treated individual with the least distance in terms of propensity score (Becker and Ichino, 2002). Several variants of nearest neighbor matching are proposed, e.g. NN matching ‘with replacement’ and ‘without replacement’. In the former case, an untreated individual can be used more than once as a match, whereas in the latter case it is considered only once. Matching with replacement involves a trade-off between bias and variance. If we allow replacement, the average quality of matching will increase and the bias will decrease while increasing the variance. This is of particular interest with data where the propensity score distribution is very different in the treatment and the control group. A problem which is related to nearest neighbor matching without replacement is that estimates depend on the order in which observations get matched. Hence, when using this approach, it should be ensured that ordering is randomly done. It is also suggested to use more than one nearest neighbor matching. Reduced variance will result from using more information to construct the counterfactual for each participant, with increased bias that results from on average poorer matches (Caliendo and Kopeinig, 2008). 3.6.1.2. Caliper Matching: To avoid the problems of bad matches resulted from the Nearest Neighbor matching; economists impose a tolerance level on the maximum propensity score distance (caliper). Imposing a caliper works in the same direction as allowing for replacement. Bad matches are avoided and hence the matching quality rises. However, if fewer matches can be performed, the variance of the estimates increases. Applying caliper matching means that an individual from the comparison group is chosen as a matching partner for a treated individual that lies within the caliper (‘propensity range’) and is closest in terms of propensity score (Caliendo and Kopeinig, 2008). Dehejia and Wahba (2002) suggest a variant of caliper matching which is called radius matching. The basic idea of this variant is to use not only the nearest neighbor and limit itself within each caliper but all of the comparison members or observations within the caliper. The benefit of this approach is that it uses only as many comparison units as available within the w kul is dl 36 caliper and therefore allows for usage of extra (fewer) units